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The Lord Monckton Foundation

(LMF) Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index


Global Temperature Update

It’s official: no global warming for 18 years 1 month

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The RSS monthly satellite global temperature anomaly for September 2014 is in, and the Great Pause is now two months longer than it was last month. Would this year’s el Niño bite soon enough to stop the psychologically-significant 18-year threshold from being crossed? The official answer is No.

Globally, September was scarcely warmer than August, which was itself some distance below the 18-year trend-line. Therefore, taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies, there has now been no global warming for 18 years 1 month.

Dr Benny Peiser, our good friend at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK, had anticipated the official crossing of the 18-year threshold by a day or two with an interesting note circulated to supporters on the ever-lengthening period without any global warming, and featuring our 17-years-11-months graph from last month.

The Great Pause is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for a little over half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), September 1996 to September 2014, showing no trend for 18 years 1 month.

See full discussion HERE


Global Temperature Update

No global warming for 17 years 11 months …

… or 19 years, according to a key statistical paper

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The Great Pause has now persisted for 17 years 11 months. Indeed, to three decimal places on a per-decade basis, there has been no global warming for 18 full years. Professor Ross McKitrick, however, has upped the ante with a new statistical paper to say there has been no global warming for 19 years.

Whichever value one adopts, it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that we face a "climate crisis" caused by our past and present sins of emission.

Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for at least 215 months.

This is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Great Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

See full report HERE


Global Temperature Update

Still no global warming for 17 years 10 months

El Niño has not yet shortened the Great Pause

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Remarkably, the el Niño warming of this year has not yet shortened the Great Pause, which, like last month, stands at 17 years 10 months with no global warming at all.

Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for 214 months. This is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for about half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Great Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), October 1996 to July 2014, showing no trend for 17 years 10 months.

The hiatus period of 17 years 10 months, or 214 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a zero trend.

Yet the length of the Great Pause in global warming, significant though it now is, is of less importance than the ever-growing discrepancy between the temperature trends predicted by models and the far less exciting real-world temperature change that has been observed.

For the full report from Lord Monckton, see HERE


No global warming for 17 years 8 months

RSS considers the cause of a Pause now half the satellite record long!

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The RSS satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomaly for March, just in, shows no global warming at all for 17 years 8 months. This remarkable 212-month period, enduring from August 1996 to March 2014, represents half of the entire 423-month satellite record since it began in January 1979.

Figure 1. The remarkable 212-month absence of global warming, notwithstanding a record rate of increase in CO2 concentration. The Pause – the zero least-squares trend on the data for the past 17 years 8 months – now extends to just over half the entire 423-month Remote Sensing Systems satellite record since January 1979.

How much global warming did officialdom predict over the past 17 years 8 months?

“The reasons for the discrepancy between the predicted and observed warming rate are currently under investigation by a number of research groups. Possible reasons include increased oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction of heat into the ocean, higher than normal levels of stratospheric aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modelled cloud feedback effects. It is possible (or even likely) that a combination of these candidate causes is responsible.”

Just a little honesty there, too. Just one off-the-cuff suggestion (volcanoes, which have not been particularly active globally in the past decade). But no fewer than three possible modelling errors are suggested.

At long last, the Pause is having its effect. The modellers, and those – such as the IPCC – who have until recently placed a naïve and unmathematical faith in them, are rethinking the matter. In the light of the evidence, it is time for politicians to do likewise.

See Lord Monckton's full discussion HERE


Lord Monckton Foundation Temperature Trend Series

See February Series Press Release HERE 

How the Global Warming Prediction Index is now compiled

SPECIAL UPDATE HERE

See full Series HERE

Lord Monckton said: "Recent record cold in the United States and flooding in the United Kingdom cannot have been caused by global warming because for almost two decades there has not been any."

RSS dataset shows 17 years & 5 months

No Warming



Lord Monckton Foundation Temperature Trend Series

See February 2014 Series Press Release HERE 

How the Global Warming Prediction Index is now compiled

SPECIAL UPDATE HERE

See full Series HERE

"Recent record cold in the United States and flooding in the United Kingdom cannot have been caused by global warming because for almost two decades there has not been any."

Lord Monckton February 2014


Lord Monckton Foundation Temperature Trend Series

See January 2014 Series Press Release HERE 

How the Global Warming Prediction Index is now compiled

SPECIAL UPDATE HERE

See full Series HERE

"The cut of almost half in the IPCC’s best estimate of near-term warming between the pre-final and final drafts of its Fifth Assessment Report signals its abandonment of the models."

Lord Monckton January 2014


Lord Monckton Foundation Temperature Trend Series

See December 2013 Series Press Release HERE 

How the Global Warming Prediction Index is compiled HERE

See full Series HERE

"It is not so much the long pause that matters: it is the widening divergence between prediction and reality. Attempts to pretend that global warming is continuing when global temperature shows no sign of increasing are implausible. It is time to rethink the math."

Lord Monckton December 2013


Lord Monckton Foundation Temperature Trend Series

See November 2013 Series Press Release HERE 

How the Global Warming Prediction Index is compiled HERE

See full Series HERE

"Reports that the pause in global warming is not real are incorrect. The mean of all five global temperature datasets shows no warming for almost 13 years. And the discrepancy between the IPCC’s predictions and the less exciting real-world observations continues to grow."

Lord Monckton November 2013


Lord Monckton Foundation Temperature Trend Series

See October 2013 Series Press Release HERE 

How the Global Warming Prediction Index is compiled HERE

See full Series HERE

"On present trends, within one or two months the RSS satellite record may become the first of the five global-temperature datasets to show no global warming at all for 17 full years. However, the most important indicator in the climate debate is the divergence between the 0.20 Cº warming since January 2005 that 34 computer models predict in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report and the 0.01 degrees’ cooling that has occurred. The next time the naturally-occurring El Niño Southern Oscillation warms the world, the long run of months without any global warming will end: but the discrepancy between exaggerated prediction and unexciting reality will continue."

Lord Monckton October 2013


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