The Lord Monckton Foundation
(LMF) Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index
In this series, we track the monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies (average global temperature) as measured by Satellite, against the UN IPCC projected 2.3 Cº/century central projection of warming since 2005 in IPCC (2013: in press) based on the output of 34 climate models running under four radiative-forcing scenarios. The entire observed trend line is below the IPCC’s least projection of 1.1 Cº/century. The IPCC’s high-end projection of warming to 2050, equivalent to 3.6 Cº/century, already seems far-fetched.
See HERE for how the Global Warming Prediction Index is compiled.
LMF Monthly Global Warming Prediction Index Series - July 2013 HERE
See Press Release HERE
The long pause in global warming continues
The Lord Monckton Foundation’s monthly Global Warming Projection Index number for July 2013 is 0.22 Cº, That is how much the IPCC’s central projection of global warming over the 8 years 6 months January 2005 to June 2013 has overshot the observed temperature trend. The long, unpredicted pause in global warming continues.
Ø If the 102-month IPCC overshoot were to continue for 100 years, the IPCC’s prediction would exceed the measured trend by 2.57 Cº. The IPCC’s central projection of global warming to 2050 is 2.33 Cº (Fifth Assessment Report).
Ø Though the IPCC projection shows the world should have warmed by 0.20 Cº since 2005, the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite global temperature datasets shows cooling of 0.02 Cº, equivalent to 0.24 Cº/century. The predicted and actual trends are visibly diverging. Solar physicists and mathematicians expect significant cooling over at least the next five years.
Ø The trend in CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa shows a rise of 17 μatm since January 2005, equivalent to 202 μatm/century. On its own, this CO2 increase should have caused a radiative forcing of 0.24 Watts per square meter, or 0.34 W m–2 after including the influence of all other greenhouse gases. Even without temperature feedbacks, according to the IPCC’s methods this forcing should have caused 0.1 Cº warming. Adding in the IPCC’s temperature estimates of temperature feedbacks and of previously-committed global warming should have caused up to 0.3 Cº warming since January 2005. None has occurred.
Ø The least-squares trend on the RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 16 years 7 months (199 months). The NOAA, in its 2008 State of the Climate report, said 15 years or more without warming would indicate a discrepancy between the models and the real world.
Ø There has been no global warming above the published measurement and coverage uncertainties for 17 years 5 months (HadCRUt4 dataset). Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s climate-science chairman, admitted in February 2013 that there had been a 17-year “pause” in global warming. Dr. Ben Santer has said that 17 years or more without warming would raise concerns about the reliability of the models.
Lord Monckton said: “The profiteers of doom were wrong. There is a growing gulf between the colorful predictions of the IPCC’s models and the less exciting real-world temperatures measured by satellites. Savage increases in the cost of fuel and power are needlessly causing hardship and death, and all in the name of a catastrophism that has now been thoroughly discredited by events. The bankrupt nations of the West should stop throwing good money after bad. The temperature record shows man-made climate change is a non-problem.”
He added: “Global warming is no longer cool.”